Four Teams Midway Through MLB's 2018 Season With a +38 Score on the #UBWS18 Scale (Part II)

In the American League (AL) East and West Division pennant races, the Boston Red Sox, the New York Yankees, the Houston Astros, and the Seattle Mariners battle with the additional incentive of possibly winning at least one hundred (100) games. According to Wikipedia, "the 100-win threshold remains the hallmark of the best teams in a given season" and "To date, there have never been four 100-win Major League teams in a single season, and never more than two in a single league."

In order to achieve at least one hundred (100) victories, a team would need at least a +38 score on the UBWS18 scale. At the end of June, these four teams had the following scores:

Boston Red Sox         (+43.6 on the UBWS18 scale)

New York Yankees    (+42.4 on the UBWS18 scale)

Houston Astros          (+39.2 on the UBSW18 scale)

Seattle Mariners        (+37.6 on the UBWS18 scale)

As you can see, all four of these teams were way over the traditional +28 score on the UBWS18 scale that usually means winning the division. Actually, all four teams had better UBWS18 scores than the best team in the National League! Unless another AL team has a really Big Win Streak, like the Oakland Athletics or Los Angeles Angels in the West Division, we can expect to see these four teams qualify with the Cleveland Indians for the AL postseason playoffs as they strive towards winning at least one hundred games.

Why are the Red Sox and the Yankees doing so well in their division this year? Are the Tampa Bay Rays, the Toronto Blue Jays, and the Baltimore Orioles really playing that poorly this year? Well, last  week the Red Sox team reached the midpoint of its 2018 regular season, after playing its eighty-first game, and then finished the month of June in first place in the Eastern Division, slightly ahead of the Yankees. It was surprising how far behind them were the other three divisional rivals. Perhaps a previous five year average number of wins (with high and low) at the end of June will enlighten us regarding this disparity:

Team              Five year average    This year    Difference    UBWS18 Score

Baltimore      43.4 wins (39-47)     23 wins      -20.4 wins       -49

Boston           42.2 wins (36-50)    56 wins      +13.8 wins      +43.6

New York      41.2 wins (39-43)    53 wins      +11.8 wins      +42.4

Toronto          41.2 wins (37-45)    39 wins      -02.2 wins        -1

Tampa Bay    39.2 wins (33-43)     41 wins       +01.8 wins    + 5

So, how do we interpret these few statistics?

1. Baltimore, which over the previous five years has usually done well in the first half of the season, had an unusually horrible first half.
2. Boston and New York, which over the previous five years has usually done well, had an unusually great first half.
3. Toronto and Tampa Bay, which over the previous five years have usually done reasonably well, are close to their normal performances, with Tampa Bay slightly better and Toronto slightly worse.

So, a partial answer to the question about the performance of the other teams in the division is that, yes, the Orioles are playing poorly at this time, but, no, the Rays and the Blue Jays are playing their normal baseball. As evidence of Baltimore's level of play, Boston has won nine of its ten games against them so far this year.

Which teams will win the East and West Divisions of the American League? Which teams will win one hundred (100) games this year? Which two good teams will end up in the risky, one-game wild card “series”? Keep your eyes on the baseball scoreboard!

P.S. As a courtesy to you, if you are also following the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners, I shall include their statistics in my occasional New England sports blog entries.

Published by Ambrose Powell

Ambrose Powell was born and raised in the New England area of the United States. He currently teaches English in Valencia, Carabobo, Venezuela, and follows New England professional sports teams from there. You can find him on Facebook (ambrosio.powell) and Twitter (@ambropow53) as well as on this sports blog (https://soxcelticsandpatriots.blogspot.com/).